Commentary

2/10/22 – The Homestretch

SPY Daily Fib Retracement

The view that the bottom was put in on Jan 24, was optimistic, but not ridiculous. SPY made a recovery to 61.8 Fib line which is close to the 54 day moving average and is encountering resistance.

The recent pattern with the gaps to minor highs is not very reassuring. This pattern may be overall bullish because the retracement was greater than 50% of the down move. On the other hand, the break above the 18 day SMA without taking out the higher 54 day MA is bearish with current price in the pocket between the 18 and 54.

The two levels of probable support before the 420 bottom is threatened correspond to the two swing lows at 440 and 427. Both those areas are reasonable swing buys on head fakes below. The low at 420 is another swing buy on a head fake below.

QQQ Daily Fib Retracement

QQQ is clearly weaker on the recovery. The retracement was only to the 50 Fib line, and the second try was weaker than the first. QQQ only made only feeble pops above the sharply declining 18 day SMA, not threatening the 54 day SMA at all.

Taking the two charts together, this is a hold for investors. Increasing position size here is aggressive as there is a good chance that the recent bottoms on both ETFs will be probed. Investors had the final months of 2021 to adjust position size and risk exposure.

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