For the last several years, I've been developing the concept of finite state stock return analysis. There are a bunch of excellent ways to implement this type of methodology. I've been specifically looking at dividing the market day into two finite states.
SPY and QQQ Charts, March 2023
Simple Moving Averages I think this is the best daily chart to look at. The idea is to include maximum information in as simple a structure as possible to facilitate understanding. The conventional two SMA choices are the 20 day and 50 day, which are fine of course. I use the 18 day and and… Continue reading SPY and QQQ Charts, March 2023
Stock Charts With Excel
I'm hoping to start regular commentary again, and thinking about ways to share my VBA code. SPY began the day in the pocket formed by the 20 and 50 day SMA. This would a nice time for a move to challenge those two topping tails. Recently, I've been working with the Excel chart object, which… Continue reading Stock Charts With Excel
2/10/22 – The Homestretch
SPY Daily Fib Retracement The view that the bottom was put in on Jan 24, was optimistic, but not ridiculous. SPY made a recovery to 61.8 Fib line which is close to the 54 day moving average and is encountering resistance. The recent pattern with the gaps to minor highs is not very reassuring. This… Continue reading 2/10/22 – The Homestretch
11/19/21 The Homestretch
The consecutive weekly white candle streak ended at five. All of the candles were shaped about as good as they get. The more recent two week period looks more like a consolidation than a topping pattern. The November low of 458 is probably important because it was probed last week. Any minor weakness should be… Continue reading 11/19/21 The Homestretch
11/5/21 SOXL and Other Leveraged Bulls
The widely expected September weakness and turnaround in October actually happened. The weakness was quite mild while the strength was extraordinary. SOXL made a double bottom, consolidated for a week or so on the sunny side of the 54 day SMA, and then almost doubled from October lows.. Seems like the imbeciles that bought Evergrande… Continue reading 11/5/21 SOXL and Other Leveraged Bulls
11/2/21 The Homestretch
The little guys are breaking out to the upside from a ten month base. The bottoming pattern is pretty, especially from July. Note how the 52 week is rising at a steeper angle than the 13 week. IWM and associates are usually heart breakers on breakouts, but both the 13 and 52 week levels look… Continue reading 11/2/21 The Homestretch
10/22/21 The Homestretch, New Articles
Looks like they all lived happily ever after once the pretty reverse head and shoulders formed. A man with a rope around his neck doesn't always hang. This rally has been heavily favoring OC. You can tell by the white candles. Two new articles are on SeekingAlpha: Fifty Shades of DeviationQYLD And XYLD: Low-Risk, High-Return… Continue reading 10/22/21 The Homestretch, New Articles
10/8/21 The Homestretch
The bottoming tails for the last three weekly SPY candles show decent support above 425, but the intermediate trend is gently down. Each of the last five weeks have all made lower highs and lows. QQQ is pretty much the same except the downtrend is slightly more pronounced. On general principles, some kind of bottom… Continue reading 10/8/21 The Homestretch
10/4/21 The Far Turn
The view on Friday was a rather tenuous possible double bottom. Now it seems like the 52 week averages are in play. The SPY 52 week SMA is at 399. An excursion to there will fill the air suspension gap from the first week of April. Keep in mind, the major ETFs pay dividends later… Continue reading 10/4/21 The Far Turn