The little rally yesterday has been reversed and now the daily candle is even engulfing yesterday. The Monday bottom does not look too safe, to say the least. 315 still looks like a good target. The 52 week average is around 309.
Days have to be divided by 6 as usual. xM3 is unusual, 78/6 = 13 times in 8 years. x33 is favorable to buy and x03 is not. Note how xF3 and xM3 are less volatile (CH and CL are smaller than x03 and x33). I've been critical of the standard statistical volatility measures because… Continue reading 9/23/20 – Probable x33, Possible x03
The market sort of reclaimed the 13 week moving average today, There is a decision about shorting the close here. I'm sort of leaning not to.
The edge produced for Tuesday by the Monday decline is not exactly arcane knowledge known only to a few adepts, so the pop from 3 to 4 pm was hardly a surprise. The outlook for the rest of the day is OK, but the most likely signal tomorrow is x30. The break below the congestion… Continue reading 9/22/20 – x00 Again
Tuesday is the best day of the week to play long after a significant drop. I don't look at days of the week specifically, in my stuff. I subscribe to a service called Bespoke and as far as I know they started calling this setup Turnaround Tuesday. One of the major technical differences between above… Continue reading 9/21/20 – Probable x00 For Turnaround Tuesday
There is a clear move down out of the 8 to 9 day congestion. Avoiding being long over the weekend wasn't real difficult despite the x00 buy signal. The decline has been relatively orderly if nothing else. These are the numbers that Specter/FF5 looks at over the last 8 years. Actually just E and M,… Continue reading 9/21/20 – x00
I decided to change the moving average calculation to use natural logs instead of the formula: (Weighted Price - Moving Average) / Weighted Price * 100. The returns are identical but the numbers are easier to understand with natural logs. Once the given moving average is determined, the new formula is: WorksheetFunction.Ln(Arg1:=(WPrice) / Mx(xw) *… Continue reading Moving Average Transformation Calculations
QQQ is getting close to it's 13 week simple moving average for the first time since the end of April. The last time it crossed from above was in late February, also after about 5 months above. The short term bull case that SPY is bottoming here remains rational but shaky. SMH and SOXL are… Continue reading 9/18/20 – Probable x00, Possible x30
9/17 shows the rectification of xEM signals. This reflects the recent failed breakout of the shorter term averages. QQQ has already broken through the 54 day moving average, SPY is attempting to hold above there. This could be a reasonable bottom formation. Otherwise, a break lower out of this congestion suggests an intermediate level decline.… Continue reading 9/17/20 – Probable em13 x03
em13 is the third hex character from the x. Each character in xFF5 corresponds to the strategy on the appropriate line above. "O" stands for Open and "F" stands for Flap. Both need some more work, but they work better than legacy indicators. The top table shows how the market environment has changed since the… Continue reading 9/17/20 em13 is x33 But Signals are Mixed