An unusual consecutive xHL signal. That happens when the first signal goes lower to middle cycle and the next one goes middle to upper. There is usually volatility with moves between cycles, but here we don't see any. SPY poking its nose back into the neutral zone yesterday makes the daily structure a little less… Continue reading 5/7/21 Current Signal xHL
The market weakened into the close, but the signal stayed at xHL. The signals haven't been the primary focus of my work lately. The tables below shows Signal performance for the 74 Industrial Sector stocks I follow: There are three Cycles: Upper Cycle= signals xCC, xFC, xCF, and xFFMiddle Cycle= signals xLH, xHL, and xMMLower… Continue reading 5/6/21 Current Signal xHL
It was easy to laugh off the capital gain tax hike ERX and GUSH are added. The chart shows that picking winners was tough over the last 21 days. The 1x sector Etfs make more money with less risk. The SMH and XBI negative returns are annoying but not disastrous like LABU and SOXL. Not… Continue reading 5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
Seems like the conversation with Yellen yesterday turned to finance, and the possibility that in some future reality, borrowing money might have some expenses associated with it like paying it back with interest. One would have to be crazy not to panic, at least briefly. SPY has been building a flimsy looking support line at… Continue reading 5/5/21 Current Signal xLH
The current upper cycle excursion has lasted from late March. The daily signals weren't all that important with the lack of price action. FWIW, today was xFC. xLH is not a mechanical buy, weakness tomorrow will make the signal x00 which is a mechanical buy. This down move out of extremely low volatility could be… Continue reading 5/4/21 Afternoon Signal xLH
A winning day for value. The seven month last place finish of QQQ in the broad ETF group is starting to look long term, KIE is having a nice day, no doubt happy about BRK.B prospects.
The chart shows tCC for the major indexes covering 7 months or 147 trade days. Note the IJR portfolio of small caps beats out IWM for first place by 5 natural log basis points or whatever they are called. .46 equates to a 59% return, while .21 = 23%. The Signal column shows what happened… Continue reading 5/3/21 Where We At?
The recent weekly view of SMH. The action of the last four weeks is quite similar to the weak Feb to early March period except there is no volatility. Note the large bottoming tails, and relatively short black bodies. This could be a double top forming, but the more likely interpretation is that this is… Continue reading 4/29/21 The Homestretch – SMH
Ugly looking reversal from the open, that looks a lot worse than it probably is. Seems like they are turning up the heat on earnings players. The earnings stocks are doing significantly worse than the overall market. The question whether it is a shakeup or shakeout is interesting. My guess is shakeout. A bit of… Continue reading 4/29/21 The Far Turn
PM Earnings There were 42 morning announcements. Of the PM group, MVIS broke above 19 on Monday and has been swinging wildly between 20 and 28. It's near 20 now. The natural log 2.40 for it's 7 month return is 11 times the original investment. 0.40 for the median return for all these equities is… Continue reading 4/29/21 Current Signal xCC More Earnings