SPY Daily Fib Retracement The view that the bottom was put in on Jan 24, was optimistic, but not ridiculous. SPY made a recovery to 61.8 Fib line which is close to the 54 day moving average and is encountering resistance. The recent pattern with the gaps to minor highs is not very reassuring. This… Continue reading 2/10/22 – The Homestretch
Author: Josef Friedman
11/19/21 The Homestretch
The consecutive weekly white candle streak ended at five. All of the candles were shaped about as good as they get. The more recent two week period looks more like a consolidation than a topping pattern. The November low of 458 is probably important because it was probed last week. Any minor weakness should be… Continue reading 11/19/21 The Homestretch
11/5/21 SOXL and Other Leveraged Bulls
The widely expected September weakness and turnaround in October actually happened. The weakness was quite mild while the strength was extraordinary. SOXL made a double bottom, consolidated for a week or so on the sunny side of the 54 day SMA, and then almost doubled from October lows.. Seems like the imbeciles that bought Evergrande… Continue reading 11/5/21 SOXL and Other Leveraged Bulls
11/2/21 The Homestretch
The little guys are breaking out to the upside from a ten month base. The bottoming pattern is pretty, especially from July. Note how the 52 week is rising at a steeper angle than the 13 week. IWM and associates are usually heart breakers on breakouts, but both the 13 and 52 week levels look… Continue reading 11/2/21 The Homestretch
10/22/21 The Homestretch, New Articles
Looks like they all lived happily ever after once the pretty reverse head and shoulders formed. A man with a rope around his neck doesn't always hang. This rally has been heavily favoring OC. You can tell by the white candles. Two new articles are on SeekingAlpha: Fifty Shades of DeviationQYLD And XYLD: Low-Risk, High-Return… Continue reading 10/22/21 The Homestretch, New Articles
10/8/21 The Homestretch
The bottoming tails for the last three weekly SPY candles show decent support above 425, but the intermediate trend is gently down. Each of the last five weeks have all made lower highs and lows. QQQ is pretty much the same except the downtrend is slightly more pronounced. On general principles, some kind of bottom… Continue reading 10/8/21 The Homestretch
10/4/21 The Far Turn
The view on Friday was a rather tenuous possible double bottom. Now it seems like the 52 week averages are in play. The SPY 52 week SMA is at 399. An excursion to there will fill the air suspension gap from the first week of April. Keep in mind, the major ETFs pay dividends later… Continue reading 10/4/21 The Far Turn
9/22/21 The Far Turn
There really wasn't any question about XLI eventually testing the 98 level, and this week that came to pass. The decline featured the semi-obligatory head fake as feeble holders saw their idiotically placed stops hit.. Deja vu all over again . As usual, the correct idea was to sell at the top which more or… Continue reading 9/22/21 The Far Turn
9/7/21 The Homestretch
The long awaited post Labor Day market is here. If we are in a coal mine XLI might be a canary. It has moved down to challenge August lows without making a new high. All in all, just the same range bound action typical of the last 5 months.
8/26/21 The Far Turn
The three powerful white candles, beginning last week Thursday, no doubt convinced panic sellers that things were actually just fine. Of course, it was better to reduce size this week than last week. The seasonality issues with September/October are worth taking into account. XLI hasn't made a new high and is a bad day away… Continue reading 8/26/21 The Far Turn
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