Tuesday is the best day of the week to play long after a significant drop. I don't look at days of the week specifically, in my stuff. I subscribe to a service called Bespoke and as far as I know they started calling this setup Turnaround Tuesday. One of the major technical differences between above… Continue reading 9/21/20 – Probable x00 For Turnaround Tuesday
Author: Josef Friedman
9/21/20 – x00
There is a clear move down out of the 8 to 9 day congestion. Avoiding being long over the weekend wasn't real difficult despite the x00 buy signal. The decline has been relatively orderly if nothing else. These are the numbers that Specter/FF5 looks at over the last 8 years. Actually just E and M,… Continue reading 9/21/20 – x00
Moving Average Transformation Calculations
I decided to change the moving average calculation to use natural logs instead of the formula: (Weighted Price - Moving Average) / Weighted Price * 100. The returns are identical but the numbers are easier to understand with natural logs. Once the given moving average is determined, the new formula is: WorksheetFunction.Ln(Arg1:=(WPrice) / Mx(xw) *… Continue reading Moving Average Transformation Calculations
9/18/20 – Probable x00, Possible x30
QQQ is getting close to it's 13 week simple moving average for the first time since the end of April. The last time it crossed from above was in late February, also after about 5 months above. The short term bull case that SPY is bottoming here remains rational but shaky. SMH and SOXL are… Continue reading 9/18/20 – Probable x00, Possible x30
9/17/20 – Probable em13 x03
9/17 shows the rectification of xEM signals. This reflects the recent failed breakout of the shorter term averages. QQQ has already broken through the 54 day moving average, SPY is attempting to hold above there. This could be a reasonable bottom formation. Otherwise, a break lower out of this congestion suggests an intermediate level decline.… Continue reading 9/17/20 – Probable em13 x03
9/17/20 em13 is x33 But Signals are Mixed
em13 is the third hex character from the x. Each character in xFF5 corresponds to the strategy on the appropriate line above. "O" stands for Open and "F" stands for Flap. Both need some more work, but they work better than legacy indicators. The top table shows how the market environment has changed since the… Continue reading 9/17/20 em13 is x33 But Signals are Mixed
9/16/20 – Probable xM3
Today saw mostly positioning for the FOMC announcement. No FDIC insurance for SPY investments was announced, and tomorrow features Thursday morning numbers. There is a slight chance that x33 will appear if there is later day weakness, that should be bought. As mentioned yesterday, xM3 isn't a terrible place to go long but the resistance… Continue reading 9/16/20 – Probable xM3
9/15/20 – Probable x33
x33 is based on the 13 day EMA staying above price, this will become an xM3 if it doesn't. xM3 is an OK signal to go long on. SPY has options expiring tomorrow, I'm considering going long the 340 Call, or whatever is at the money closer to the close.
9/15/20 – YTD and Previous 52 Days Numbers
This modest September weakness has been good for Specter/FF5. YTD numbers are trend following, trend following was never active for the July - September period. Note that FCC is negative for all six 3x Bulls on both long and short term, while LCC is positive on both views. TQQQ is the only ETF with a… Continue reading 9/15/20 – YTD and Previous 52 Days Numbers
9/15/20 – x30 For em13
I'm in the middle of this multiple strategies development phase. em13 is definitely x30 but Consenso is saying x3M. Hope to have the new analysis ready in a day or two, but doubt it will expose any great secrets of the universe. Anyway, I don't think the x30 is super negative here. It seems that… Continue reading 9/15/20 – x30 For em13
