Looks like prices will end up near the top of the 16 day rectangle that started forming from mid-June. This is an area of resistance. More or less straight up since Monday.
Author: Josef Friedman
7/2/20 Probable xFF
Not much of a productive internal dialogue yesterday, as I bought SOXL soon after my mid afternoon post without waiting for the close. Fortunately, a strong bull move makes even a feeble long entry look prescient. SPY is taking out the prior two weeks bottoming tails. xFF is a classical Specter/FF5 buy. For the last… Continue reading 7/2/20 Probable xFF
7/1/20 Probable xFM
Considering all the work it took to get up here, it would have been odd if this week didn't see at least a probe of the previous two week's topping tails. xFM has happened four times in the past year, and twice in the second quarter. It typically does well close to open, but is… Continue reading 7/1/20 Probable xFM
6/30/20 xM3
This is unusual. It is theoretically stronger than x33 which is a buy. Today's advance cleared the previous two weeks candle bodies. Seems favorable to be long here.
6/30/20 x33 Current Signal
SPY is showing strength moving off the 52 week moving average so far this week. The tables are for 13em. Signal xC3 probably does not occur in nature, xM3 can happen but it is quite unusual. Quarter 1 was much more bearish than quarter 2. The columns starting with sd have the standard deviation associated… Continue reading 6/30/20 x33 Current Signal
6/29/20 Probable x30
It wasn't too bad to buy the x03 on the Friday close. The Close to Open numbers for the second quarter were favorable, but the YTD numbers were not. x30 is quite negative if the market is dropping, so that is a big loser YTD. However it is playing OK in the second quarter. In… Continue reading 6/29/20 Probable x30
6/26/20 Drama at 300 x03 13em
Can't say I'm surprised about this test of 300. There is a sense of inevitability about setting a new monthly low. x03 is not bad to buy but it has a negative close to open return in the seven times this has happened in 2020. x00 also has a negative close to open. x00 has… Continue reading 6/26/20 Drama at 300 x03 13em
6/26/2020 Lipstick Day
SPY Weekly QQQ Weekly The weekly candles will look a lot better if today is positive. Seems to me that the main discussion is still about SPY 300. This is the first summer Friday this year and near the end of the 2nd quarter is not traditionally bullish. Theoretically there might be lighter than usual… Continue reading 6/26/2020 Lipstick Day
6/25/20 Probable x00
x00 is a favorable state, but YTD, buying the close tends to be losing money at the open. 60 days means x00 has happened 10 days YTD because there are six equities aggregated. Avoiding the overnight seems like a good idea at the moment.
6/25/20 xX0 Signals
SPY Daily The support at the 52 week moving average (297) appears brittle. The 295 low on this move will most likely be broken. A simple method of forecasting involves assuming that the next low will be equal in size to the move from 322 to 295. The current move down started from about 315.… Continue reading 6/25/20 xX0 Signals
