Looks like yesterday was just some bozo selling. Prices came down to the 54 day SMA, which corresponds to the spot where the June breakout happened. Everyone smart enough to have a stop sell on this structure just got hosed, just like they probably deserved. That being said, the current action resembles the area in… Continue reading 7/20/21 The Far Turn
Author: Josef Friedman
7/19/21 The Backstretch
430 and 427 proved to be nothing, one would expect there to be some support at one or both of those areas. I published this chart a while ago which has a line at 424 which was the base of the June-July breakout. If the breakout structure tips over the low will be 414 which… Continue reading 7/19/21 The Backstretch
7/16/21 The Homestretch
The recent action has seen a transition from OC excursions being acceptable to not so much. That can be gauged by looking at black candles. Volatility remains a joke. SPY is gently approaching the rising 18 day SMA. The 120 minute chart show the 54 period SMA is being tested. The new prevalence of black… Continue reading 7/16/21 The Homestretch
7/14/21 xSig Article
State Space-Time, The Finite Frontier was published on SeekingAlpha yesterday. It discusses the concept of a state space which is part of a rather obscure area of game theory, which seems related to my research. It introduces a state performance matrix derived from the structured lookback. The xFBD on the top line means is the… Continue reading 7/14/21 xSig Article
7/8/21 The Far Turn – More Mild Volatility
It sure would make analysis easier if a little volatility appeared and gradually went higher like we are seeing now. This looks like some big players are reducing positions by selling CO with lower prices attracting buyers OC. Going flat here isn't very astute, of course. The 54 day SMA at 420 is intermediate support.… Continue reading 7/8/21 The Far Turn – More Mild Volatility
7/7/21 Mild Volatility
Friday was sort of a double Summer Lipstick Day. Because it was a holiday weekend, the second string Friday players who botched the Fed announcement took the day off, leaving things to the third string who decided things looked pretty good. The gap was closed on Tuesday with a nice bounce off the 18 period… Continue reading 7/7/21 Mild Volatility
6/24/21 ARK Active: TSLA Making A Move
I've been looking at ETF components recently. TSLA seems to comprise about 5% of growth ETF portfolios. ARKK, ARKQ, and ARKW each have about 10%. TSLA underperformance explains some of the issues with ARK Active. The last few days, TSLA has been strong. I think that if TSLA is performing well, the rest of the… Continue reading 6/24/21 ARK Active: TSLA Making A Move
6/22/21 The Homestretch, Lipstick Day + 2
SPY weekly is forming an ascending triangle, where the 13 week SMA defines the trendline and slope. These things fail more often than not, but there is little devastating short term downside risk. Maybe it will deteriorate into a rectangle. That is why selling into Friday's pathetic attempt at a retreat was not the smartest… Continue reading 6/22/21 The Homestretch, Lipstick Day + 2
6/21/21 SPY Ex-Div
There are probably about 30 people in the world who understand SPY dividends. Somehow they can keep SPY at more or less exactly 10% of the index. That means something weird goes on. Friday was definitely weird but I think these are correctly adjusted prices now. Note that the all time high I noted on… Continue reading 6/21/21 SPY Ex-Div
6/21/21 Broad Based ETFs Growth vs Value
After Friday's value drubbing, I was surprised to see an article pushing value stocks because they have doing so well. They are definitely more valuable this morning than Thursday for example. Personally, I'm a big value fan but sort of regard that as a weakness because growth consistently trounces value. About the best one can… Continue reading 6/21/21 Broad Based ETFs Growth vs Value
