Couch potatoes ex-semis are lagging small caps today. The foxes are unanimous at xFC. xFC hasn't been a bad place to go long, especially from a CO point of view. Note that the winning percentages for CO and OC have been added to the tables. Going long XRT or SMH CO, then long XRT or… Continue reading 12/4/20 – Midday Signals
The xFC midday signals deteriorated to xCC on the minor weakness at the close yesterday. The buy and hold results for the vanilla ETFs starting from the 3rd quarter through yesterday are shown above. Note OC didn't make money during arguably one of the most profitable 4 month periods ever. Surely a testament to the… Continue reading 12/4/20 – Current Signals
The foxes are split between xFC and xCC. I've sort of circled around to looking at the signals after studying binary decision making in some depth for a few months. The table shows that Zcon1 natural log YTD performance with xFC is poor over the 32 trade days. The high achieving m13m21 combination is showing… Continue reading 12/3/20 – Midday Signals
The foxes are all xCF here. They will flip to either xCC or xFC depending on today's action with xCC being more likely as the rising averages will get closer to price if the market doesn't go up much. I thought a possible government shutdown might become a thing soon, not to mention election certification… Continue reading 12/3/20 – Current Signals
The foxes sat out close to open (CO). Tactically, I sold near the open yesterday. For the last 30 years or so, money is made from close to open, with open to close (OC) more or less a crapshoot. Buying at the open and selling at the high, generally makes less money than shorting the… Continue reading 12/2/20 – Current Signals, Methodology Overview
The consensus is xFC. The daily chart has blue lines drawn at the bottoms of the various unfilled gaps. Note the two in proximity to the 18 and 54 day moving averages. A bull case can be made from the weekly chart. Using round numbers, there was a move from 300 in June to 350… Continue reading 12/1/20 – Midday Signals
SPY is set to open above Mt Lameduck as November is now in the rear view mirror. XBI/LABU are pretty examples of a break above an ascending triangle. Most of the time these things degenerate into a rectangle. This was a nice Thanksgiving present as the entry on Wednesday afternoon had little risk.
Consensus remains at xCC. The slight weakness early in the day did not close the Nov 23 gap where SPY closed at 357.46. The current discussion is whether that that gap will be closed before a move above the top of Mt Lameduck at 364.38. Theoretically the odds are based on where price is currently… Continue reading 11/30/20 – Afternoon Signals
Somewhat surprisingly the foxes are consensus xCC today. Somehow the SMA lines had their colors switched but the rectangle defined by Mt Lameduck is the significant current feature. I'm not expecting a sharp move higher from this area without more consolidation.
A little caution might be the an important virtue for December, but that doesn't happen until Tuesday. xCC or xFC look like the signals for the weekend. Trend following is still active.