XLI has been a critical component of market strength and this weakness is worth noting. XLF has been moving up with XLI and is also in a precarious situation. This week SPY fell from the Upper Cycle to the middle, and today probably to the lower. Specter/FF5s goes long mechanically if x00 appears Monday afternoon.… Continue reading 6/18/21 Probable xLH, XLF and XLI
Tag: SPY
6/18/21 Quadruple Witching and Ex-Div
I was so excited by the Fed meeting, I didn't realize today was quad witching and the Ex-div situation is murkier than usual. Spy is Ex 6/19 (tomorrow), otherwise 6/22 is popular, IWM happened already. Brokers don't do a good job of adjusting prices. IT guys don't like to do it because it is a… Continue reading 6/18/21 Quadruple Witching and Ex-Div
6/17/21 Current Signal xLH
The action junkies probably were unsatisfied as the swings yesterday stopped a bit short of stomach churning. xLH has not been a great place for the last 3/7 of a year (108 days) but returns have been notably worse CO than OC. With ranges so tight, there is not a whole lot to do on… Continue reading 6/17/21 Current Signal xLH
6/16/21 The Homestretch
I've been following 120 minute charts lately. After the announcement, SPY goes down to where it triggers stops and that fills the Jun 3 - Jun 4 gap. A brief moment of very mild excitement. The pop lower wasn't unexpected, It was possible to make money on the move but that takes more video game… Continue reading 6/16/21 The Homestretch
6/14/21 The Homestretch
This week we learn if the Fed thinks there is an "I" in inflation. The check engine light is still flashing over the air support at 404. One scenario goes, after the meeting the market will move lower. That exact scenario is a bit obvious, but some kind of downward probe wouldn't be surprising. The… Continue reading 6/14/21 The Homestretch
6/7/21 $SPX or SPY
SPY set an all time high on Friday The two month timeframe gives a nice picture of action above the air support level of about 404. The check engine light is still flashing. SPY set an all time high on Friday which was certainly no surprise to the poor sap who sold at 416.28 on… Continue reading 6/7/21 $SPX or SPY
6/4/21 First Lipstick Day of Summer
Someone put a tight stop at 416.28 probably figuring it wouldn't be hit on a morning excursion to the first support zone. Stops get hit, it's that simple. The little dip below the blue line is called a head fake, but it's mostly just God punishing players for their chutzpah. Now it is Lipstick Day… Continue reading 6/4/21 First Lipstick Day of Summer
6/3/21 Missed It By That Much
The idea behind the pop above the key 417 level last week was to set the semi-obligatory new high and possibly then schedule a service appointment to check the air suspension below the 404 level, which has been causing the check engine light to flash intermittently. Tuesday saw an intraday high of 422.72 just south… Continue reading 6/3/21 Missed It By That Much
6/1/21 The Homestretch
36 days is a great lookback period. 36 * 7 = 252 which is the number of trade days in a calendar year. That makes a market year = 7 periods of 36 days. Enhance Returns With a Simple Trading Edge was just published on SeekingAlpha. I argue that leverage should be increased in the… Continue reading 6/1/21 The Homestretch
6/1/21 Current Signal xCF
The bottoming tails coming off the 13 week SMA tell the story. There is a lot of buying interest at lower levels. At the same time, things have been quite boring and the summer season is just starting. Perhaps today will take out 422.82 for a new high.
