SPY Daily Fib Retracement The view that the bottom was put in on Jan 24, was optimistic, but not ridiculous. SPY made a recovery to 61.8 Fib line which is close to the 54 day moving average and is encountering resistance. The recent pattern with the gaps to minor highs is not very reassuring. This… Continue reading 2/10/22 – The Homestretch
Tag: SPY
11/19/21 The Homestretch
The consecutive weekly white candle streak ended at five. All of the candles were shaped about as good as they get. The more recent two week period looks more like a consolidation than a topping pattern. The November low of 458 is probably important because it was probed last week. Any minor weakness should be… Continue reading 11/19/21 The Homestretch
10/22/21 The Homestretch, New Articles
Looks like they all lived happily ever after once the pretty reverse head and shoulders formed. A man with a rope around his neck doesn't always hang. This rally has been heavily favoring OC. You can tell by the white candles. Two new articles are on SeekingAlpha: Fifty Shades of DeviationQYLD And XYLD: Low-Risk, High-Return… Continue reading 10/22/21 The Homestretch, New Articles
10/8/21 The Homestretch
The bottoming tails for the last three weekly SPY candles show decent support above 425, but the intermediate trend is gently down. Each of the last five weeks have all made lower highs and lows. QQQ is pretty much the same except the downtrend is slightly more pronounced. On general principles, some kind of bottom… Continue reading 10/8/21 The Homestretch
10/4/21 The Far Turn
The view on Friday was a rather tenuous possible double bottom. Now it seems like the 52 week averages are in play. The SPY 52 week SMA is at 399. An excursion to there will fill the air suspension gap from the first week of April. Keep in mind, the major ETFs pay dividends later… Continue reading 10/4/21 The Far Turn
8/26/21 The Far Turn
The three powerful white candles, beginning last week Thursday, no doubt convinced panic sellers that things were actually just fine. Of course, it was better to reduce size this week than last week. The seasonality issues with September/October are worth taking into account. XLI hasn't made a new high and is a bad day away… Continue reading 8/26/21 The Far Turn
8/23/21 The Homestretch
The usual recent story. Nervous nellies who sold on the itty bitty weakness missed the move. The witch (or whatever) of September is still two weeks away.
8/19/21 A Little Volatility
I've been doing research on statistics. When statistics become interesting, we can infer that the market has been boring. However, it's rarely a bad guess to expect market weakness in the September/October period, and it is already late August. Some of the sharper tools in the shed, are tuning into that. The good and bad… Continue reading 8/19/21 A Little Volatility
7/29/21 13% in 6 Months
xSig is Octal now. The hex number checked for profit over the entire lookback. That might be worth knowing, but for making decisions today, that seems to double complexity for no great analytical benefit. The median natural log return for the major players was 0.13. Median return was also 0.13 for the Sectors. Same story… Continue reading 7/29/21 13% in 6 Months
7/20/21 The Far Turn
Looks like yesterday was just some bozo selling. Prices came down to the 54 day SMA, which corresponds to the spot where the June breakout happened. Everyone smart enough to have a stop sell on this structure just got hosed, just like they probably deserved. That being said, the current action resembles the area in… Continue reading 7/20/21 The Far Turn
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