Commentary

5/11/21 Descent to the Rectangle

SPY is about 412 now, getting close to taking out last week’s low. That’s about 10 away from the 13 week moving average and moving into the Jan-Mar rectangle. The 52 week SMA at 356 then becomes part of the conversation.

The slope of the couch potato 13 week SMA is already negative. Taking out the intermediate low of 297 is a distinct possibility and that would put it at the 52 week SMA. Such a scenario would turn this pattern from something like a rising wedge into a megaphone.

This doesn’t look like the optimum place to be 100% in equities.

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