I've been looking at ETF components recently. TSLA seems to comprise about 5% of growth ETF portfolios. ARKK, ARKQ, and ARKW each have about 10%. TSLA underperformance explains some of the issues with ARK Active. The last few days, TSLA has been strong. I think that if TSLA is performing well, the rest of the… Continue reading 6/24/21 ARK Active: TSLA Making A Move
Month: June 2021
6/22/21 The Homestretch, Lipstick Day + 2
SPY weekly is forming an ascending triangle, where the 13 week SMA defines the trendline and slope. These things fail more often than not, but there is little devastating short term downside risk. Maybe it will deteriorate into a rectangle. That is why selling into Friday's pathetic attempt at a retreat was not the smartest… Continue reading 6/22/21 The Homestretch, Lipstick Day + 2
6/21/21 SPY Ex-Div
There are probably about 30 people in the world who understand SPY dividends. Somehow they can keep SPY at more or less exactly 10% of the index. That means something weird goes on. Friday was definitely weird but I think these are correctly adjusted prices now. Note that the all time high I noted on… Continue reading 6/21/21 SPY Ex-Div
6/21/21 Broad Based ETFs Growth vs Value
After Friday's value drubbing, I was surprised to see an article pushing value stocks because they have doing so well. They are definitely more valuable this morning than Thursday for example. Personally, I'm a big value fan but sort of regard that as a weakness because growth consistently trounces value. About the best one can… Continue reading 6/21/21 Broad Based ETFs Growth vs Value
6/18/21 Probable xLH, XLF and XLI
XLI has been a critical component of market strength and this weakness is worth noting. XLF has been moving up with XLI and is also in a precarious situation. This week SPY fell from the Upper Cycle to the middle, and today probably to the lower. Specter/FF5s goes long mechanically if x00 appears Monday afternoon.… Continue reading 6/18/21 Probable xLH, XLF and XLI
6/18/21 Quadruple Witching and Ex-Div
I was so excited by the Fed meeting, I didn't realize today was quad witching and the Ex-div situation is murkier than usual. Spy is Ex 6/19 (tomorrow), otherwise 6/22 is popular, IWM happened already. Brokers don't do a good job of adjusting prices. IT guys don't like to do it because it is a… Continue reading 6/18/21 Quadruple Witching and Ex-Div
6/17/21 The Homestretch
QQQ is making a new high. The first dip to 297 in March started Feb 16. The center ellipse is an interesting double top/slightly rising wedge. That played out the way one might expect, a two wave decline, with the pretty tag of the 18 day SMA marking the beginning of the second down wave.… Continue reading 6/17/21 The Homestretch
6/17/21 Current Signal xLH
The action junkies probably were unsatisfied as the swings yesterday stopped a bit short of stomach churning. xLH has not been a great place for the last 3/7 of a year (108 days) but returns have been notably worse CO than OC. With ranges so tight, there is not a whole lot to do on… Continue reading 6/17/21 Current Signal xLH
6/16/21 The Homestretch
I've been following 120 minute charts lately. After the announcement, SPY goes down to where it triggers stops and that fills the Jun 3 - Jun 4 gap. A brief moment of very mild excitement. The pop lower wasn't unexpected, It was possible to make money on the move but that takes more video game… Continue reading 6/16/21 The Homestretch
6/15/21 Homogeneity
Looks like everyone who spent a lot of time on broad based ETF selection leading up to Apr 23 was wasting their time. Sometimes a chimpanzee and dartboard are all it takes. Very high winning percentages CO, but the gains are chimp change. The action consists of maneuvering with investors reluctant to increase or decrease… Continue reading 6/15/21 Homogeneity