Commentary

3/4/21 Longer Term Levels

The monthly SPY chart highlights the current triviality of this decline. The 13 month simple moving average is going to lose the March 2020 candle soon and its slope is becoming steeper. A move to 360 would take out the December low but just touch the November 2020 high.

If things get more serious, the topping structure might flip, so 360 – 35 = 325 which will be slightly below the 13 month. The 39 month is a logical destination if 325 fails. That number is at 290. The 39 month has been touched once a year lately. A 13 month touch is overdue.

There are no good points to sell long term holdings on the way down. The idea is to be caught in these things with minimum position sizes.

This decline has a ways to go before it is worse than Sep-Oct 2020. This one feels worse, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 13 month SMA touched. The sharp daily rebounds on Feb 24 and Mar 1 and reactions off of them are quite ugly in retrospect.

Haven’t discarded the idea of playing x00 here.

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