Commentary

2/26/21 Current Signals xLH/o0>c1

If there is one lesson to be learned from yesterday, I don’t think it is to always use a 27 day look back. If you don’t invest buy and hold, you don’t want to be extra long yesterday.

Three 27 day consecutive periods are shown above. We see deterioration in the win rates and positive returns, where the big pop is coming in November. Declines have consistently been contained with only brief excursions into the FF5s lower cycle. The days spent in the higher cycle are deteriorating. The 12/8 – 1/15 period saw no days in the lower cycle, the current 27 day period has seen 3.

OC has been better c0 than c1. The market denizens may not understand or care to calculate these signals but the smart money seems to be anticipating them, as important adjustments are being observed lately an hour or so prior to the open or close.

Meanwhile, no real price level damage has been done. The January 29 low of 368.27 is not being threatened and SPY has not even fallen to the 54 day moving average.

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