Commentary, Methodology

10/19/20 Win Percent

The table shows log returns for the past year for the 3x Significant 6 as usual with the probability of having a positive day with the various strategies. For example, SPXL for Buy and Hold had a gain on 59% (590 out of 1000) of the days. TQQQ at 64% (641) is pretty amazing. Long term, these numbers are around 55%.

The CurrS column is current signal, so 1 = long today.

The same table is shown above sorted by TRet (Total Return) which is just a sum of natural log return for the six bulls.

That’s interesting from a gambling perspective. In blackjack, I think the most favorable odds a card counter gets is about 55%. That makes TQQQ at over 64% for buy and hold pretty good. The strategies do even better.

The difference between the market and gambling is that you don’t know exactly how much you will win or lose on a single bet with the market, whereas you do with gambling. But the win percent is still important.,

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