The 60 minute chart shows the bottoming formation that has developed over the last few weeks. Last week Sep 21 - 25 created an Island bottom. How good this formation is and whether the up gap will be filled is subjective. The bottom of the gap at 329 corresponds to the 54 hour simple moving… Continue reading 9/30/20 – Probable xFC
One of the above signals will be produced at the close. xFC is slightly negative but not crazy to play long. Tomorrow is Thursday and the issue will be whether it is worth the annoyance of holding overnight into the freaky morning numbers. I'm inclined to buy xCC tonight if it appears. I checked SeekingAlpha… Continue reading 9/30/20 – xCF
The 18 and 54 day simple moving averages are quite close together on both SPY and QQQ. 341 is the obvious target for SPY corresponding to the top of the congestion. Simple moving average crosses are way better to play backwards. Chartist wisdom is that buying the cross of the shorter term average above the… Continue reading 9/29/20 – Probable xCF, possible xFF
As discussed last week, this isn't a terrible place to go long, even though CC, CO and HLd are all below zero. The negative volatility is about 5 times better than x30, and x30 played pretty well today. It was OK to buy today in the morning, the algorithm evaluates the end of day situation,… Continue reading 9/28/20 – xF3 For Tuesday
Longer term Con1 is x30, shorter Con2 is at x33. Con1 return streams have had the better results for the last several years.
Feeble action this week, the dividend adjusted price is currently at the top of the nasty Feb 24 weekly candle. That also is the top of the June 1 and Jun 8 candles. All things considered, this is not yet very impressive as far as declines go. Overnight close to open action has not been… Continue reading 9/25/20 – x00 Friday
I divided the days column by 6 this time. The table shows results for all x0x for today, not just x03. x00 is the only result that is a buy signal. Looks like this week will be the fourth losing week in a row for SPY. That also happened in September and May 2019, so… Continue reading 9/24/20 – x03 Going In
The little rally yesterday has been reversed and now the daily candle is even engulfing yesterday. The Monday bottom does not look too safe, to say the least. 315 still looks like a good target. The 52 week average is around 309.
Days have to be divided by 6 as usual. xM3 is unusual, 78/6 = 13 times in 8 years. x33 is favorable to buy and x03 is not. Note how xF3 and xM3 are less volatile (CH and CL are smaller than x03 and x33). I've been critical of the standard statistical volatility measures because… Continue reading 9/23/20 – Probable x33, Possible x03
The market sort of reclaimed the 13 week moving average today, There is a decision about shorting the close here. I'm sort of leaning not to.