Commentary, Methodology

9/2/20 Probable xFF

Looks like it will be a buy going into ugly morning numbers day.

For whatever reason, my confidence in the analysis is pretty high; not so much as a way to solve all my issues with cash, but that the methodology is a valid way of analyzing the market. The DACTI principle might actually be true.

Since Fangdango, I’ve been working on showing multiple strategies simultaneously. This involves changes to the Map Signal logic – the table shown in this morning’s post. The Single Garbage Can remains the same.

SPY Signals is produced in the Build step. The build step is responsible for building xEM, but that step can (and must) be broken out for technical reasons that we can ignore for now.

I published the code to do the Signal Build in the first Fox Force 5 article. That code turned out to be confusing for me, it took too long to figure out how to modify it if the specific columns changed. This is the way it looks now:

ColXSel are the column numbers in SPY Signals. E13 is in column 12 (or L) M13 is column 16. That is how em is built. To build something like E3E7 it is simply necessary to change the ColXSel numbers. I think my other solution was a little more elegant at the expense of comprehensibility.

The idea is that all these combinations (I hope) crush buy and hold by similar ridiculous amounts.

I’m planning an article around this as proof that finite state analysis is superior to consecutive time because it gives you a better grasp of what the market is likely to do. If consecutive time analysis was better or even equal to finite state, it should be possible to show a strategy based on consecutive time being equally as profitable.

That’s pretty cool because not only Technical Analysis (Statistics for Dummies) but statistics itself and the entire financial system is based on consecutive time.

I looked at a book review of a 5 star rated trading manual. A guy gave it 5 stars and mentioned he was running 20 strategies. I can pretty much guarantee he isn’t running 20 strategies because they all double his money every 4 months.

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