Commentary

XLI: Recovery

XLI Weekly

18 Month Triple Tops

turned into a blog post a week or so after I wrote it. This is the prettiest of the various triple tops. The tops are all within 13 cents of each other.

I suggested the 61.8% Fib was the most likely target, which is the 38.2% on this chart because it depends if you start the line from the top or bottom. For some reason, I gave 75 as the likely top of the trading range with 67 as the bottom, so it was interesting to see prices go right back to 75 and pull back a bit today (so far).

My guess is that the triple tops will hold for several months. Assuming that is true, the current rally will reverse at some point below the top. The 13 week moving average is at 75.39.

XLI Day

The 54 day moving average at 75.67 is another target in the same neighborhood as the 13 week.

If XLI can clear the 13 week and 54 day averages at around 76, the bullish case becomes much stronger.

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