I was working on Excel charts over the weekend. A year or so ago, I had some pivot charts with long and flat strategy return streams where Long + Flat = CC (Buy and Hold). The charts above are not pivot charts and CO + OC = CC. Important observations include: OC (gray line) outperforming… Continue reading 5/10/21 Natural Log Charts
An unusual consecutive xHL signal. That happens when the first signal goes lower to middle cycle and the next one goes middle to upper. There is usually volatility with moves between cycles, but here we don't see any. SPY poking its nose back into the neutral zone yesterday makes the daily structure a little less… Continue reading 5/7/21 Current Signal xHL
The chart shows tCC for the major indexes covering 7 months or 147 trade days. Note the IJR portfolio of small caps beats out IWM for first place by 5 natural log basis points or whatever they are called. .46 equates to a 59% return, while .21 = 23%. The Signal column shows what happened… Continue reading 5/3/21 Where We At?
The recent weekly view of SMH. The action of the last four weeks is quite similar to the weak Feb to early March period except there is no volatility. Note the large bottoming tails, and relatively short black bodies. This could be a double top forming, but the more likely interpretation is that this is… Continue reading 4/29/21 The Homestretch – SMH
Pretty cool that all five of the growth group have close to the exact same 31 day returns, at least to the first two decimal places. The same maneuvering action we've been seeing for some time now with value shuffling slowly to growth, and CO staying a bit weak. I just submitted a seekingalpha article… Continue reading 4/26/21 The Homestretch
The graphics have a new look. xCC is the hex signal for the 4 CC numbers. tCC is the total of the 3 Yrmolated time frames. 21 days = 1 month, 42 days = 2 months and 84 days = 4 months. tCC = 7 months. The same thing is done for CO and OC… Continue reading 4/26/21 XME, One Fist of Aluminum, the Other of Steel
Interesting dilemma yesterday was whether to hold overnight. The weak CO trend is a big deal currently. I'm starting to understand what I've been doing the last more than a few months. The studies have been rate of change analysis with consecutive time periods. That sort of relates to a moving average offset; offset means… Continue reading 4/22/21 Fixed Anchor Point or Derangement?
If a kidnapper of a close family member demands that you invest in either XLU, XLB, or XLV probably the choice is between XLB or XLV. They both look pretty good today, showing breakouts above congestion. Mining is the hot area today. Steel has not been strong lately but still the leading industry. The win… Continue reading 4/15/21 The Homestretch – Healthcare and Materials
The table shows the 1x ETFs out of 40 with the best RR numbers over the past 21 days. The next table shows the poorest RR performers (which are not doing badly here). Yesterday's numbers (columns starting with "y") confirm the 21 day CC numbers to some extent. That is, green on the top and… Continue reading 4/6/21 ETF Ranking
These choppy periods can last for a long time and who really understands the recent couch potato weakness? I've also been looking at ranking stocks based on performance for a long time. One obvious idea is that the best performing stocks for a recent time period of x days, will perform better than average for… Continue reading 3/26/21 Current Signals xLH; The Problem