I was working on Excel charts over the weekend. A year or so ago, I had some pivot charts with long and flat strategy return streams where Long + Flat = CC (Buy and Hold). The charts above are not pivot charts and CO + OC = CC. Important observations include: OC (gray line) outperforming… Continue reading 5/10/21 Natural Log Charts
The chart shows tCC for the major indexes covering 7 months or 147 trade days. Note the IJR portfolio of small caps beats out IWM for first place by 5 natural log basis points or whatever they are called. .46 equates to a 59% return, while .21 = 23%. The Signal column shows what happened… Continue reading 5/3/21 Where We At?
The dog of growth is is once again biting the man of value. SPLV, USMV have been about as bad as value funds get in a bull market over the last year, but their recent performance is approaching respectability. LABU/XBI/IBB look like they might keep it together OC for a change today. The USMV and… Continue reading 4/8/21 The Far Turn
xCF hasn't been good CO recently but the older numbers override that. There is no rotation of strength into other sectors today, IWM, XLE, XLI, and KRE, the recent leaders, are all quite weak today along with XBI and SMH. Still not a bad place to be long here. I'm doing some rethinking of quatz… Continue reading 3/23/21 Afternoon Signals xCF
Index futures stabilized about half an hour after the open on Sunday night and that was pretty bullish. The easy read seems to be XLI: As long as the gap marked by the horizontal lines isn't filled things aren't going to be too bad and the action suggests that isn't happening today. It's still a… Continue reading 2/1/21 Current Signals x03/x0
The three unlikely post election sector heroes are KRE, XLE and XRT. KRE is doing about twice as well as XLF. Note that these strong sectors are going counter to the usual OC relative weakness. The big advantage of using natural log returns is that the three periods can be added to get total returns.… Continue reading 1/21/21 Current Signals xFF/x7 and Sectors
"Never short a dull market" is a pretty good adage. The foxes are staying bullish. x6 is not as good as x5 and a strong finish will make the reading x7 which is not a big money maker but has played CO real well since the start of the 2nd quarter. The buy and hold… Continue reading 12/9/20 – Midday Signals
New strategy, market still neutral daily, bullish weekly.