It was easy to laugh off the capital gain tax hike ERX and GUSH are added. The chart shows that picking winners was tough over the last 21 days. The 1x sector Etfs make more money with less risk. The SMH and XBI negative returns are annoying but not disastrous like LABU and SOXL. Not… Continue reading 5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
The dog of growth is is once again biting the man of value. SPLV, USMV have been about as bad as value funds get in a bull market over the last year, but their recent performance is approaching respectability. LABU/XBI/IBB look like they might keep it together OC for a change today. The USMV and… Continue reading 4/8/21 The Far Turn
Interesting news recently with the Suez and Acheron, even if it is not clear what to make of it from a return perspective. xHL is not a mechanical buy signal. It made a nice profit in the 111 day period from 8/25/20 - 2/2/21 because these signals were tending to resolve to xFF. That doesn't… Continue reading 3/29/21 Current Signals xHL
The little pop off deep support was easily tradeable yesterday. Given the current nature of reality, it makes sense to take some short term profits. BioTechs have lost their mojo lately. Things are bad when the best performing stock, EXEL, is losing money over two months. They managed a pop off the new low yesterday,… Continue reading 3/26/21 Afternoon Signals xHL BioTech Mojo
These choppy periods can last for a long time and who really understands the recent couch potato weakness? I've also been looking at ranking stocks based on performance for a long time. One obvious idea is that the best performing stocks for a recent time period of x days, will perform better than average for… Continue reading 3/26/21 Current Signals xLH; The Problem
IWM has been quite weak for the last few days. All three of the big guys are sitting near support areas which seem to have good chances for failing. If IWM moves sharply below 204 a dreaded megaphone pattern will emerge. Anyone buying LABU in early February to get enough money to buy a new… Continue reading 3/25/21 Current Signals xMM
The three unlikely post election sector heroes are KRE, XLE and XRT. KRE is doing about twice as well as XLF. Note that these strong sectors are going counter to the usual OC relative weakness. The big advantage of using natural log returns is that the three periods can be added to get total returns.… Continue reading 1/21/21 Current Signals xFF/x7 and Sectors
SPY is set to open above Mt Lameduck as November is now in the rear view mirror. XBI/LABU are pretty examples of a break above an ascending triangle. Most of the time these things degenerate into a rectangle. This was a nice Thanksgiving present as the entry on Wednesday afternoon had little risk.
Market still bullish with the exception of XBI and XLV. Seasonality is a positive. Some technical deterioration is a concern.
Later strength after earlier weakness. Still quite bullish overall, XBI and XLV are weak.