Afternoon strength saw the signals close at xFC instead of xCC. A natural log return of .69 is doubling your money. Four of the magnificent seven have accomplished that in 54 days, breaking the 1% per day compound return barrier for the period. They are TNA, FAS, LABU, and SOXL. The daily Octal signal of… Continue reading 1/14/21 Current Signals xFC
Tag: SOXL
12/16/20 – Current Signals
180 trade days (a year has about 252 days) of 1% compound daily gains would show a natural log return of 1.80. When we see 1.60 that's is 160 days of 1% gains plus 20 days where the investor made and lost nothing. Sort of the financial equivalent of the guy who asked the king… Continue reading 12/16/20 – Current Signals
12/14/20 – Midday Signals
The DEMA and TEMA bothered me, at least partially because they hug the current price too tight. That results in them being replaced by W (weighted moving average) and R (rate of change). The most prevalent signals of the 44 strategies are shown. Close to Open plays better than Close to Close. That may be… Continue reading 12/14/20 – Midday Signals
12/11/20 – Afternoon Signals
One can plausibly argue that the Nov 30/Dec 1 gap virtually closed today. The next one is from 5 days previous to that at about 357.50. My guess about kzc3x30 yesterday being not too significant isn't a major threat to win the Nobel prize for guessing next year. kzc3x33 for today looks pretty good with… Continue reading 12/11/20 – Afternoon Signals
12/3/20 – Midday Signals
The foxes are split between xFC and xCC. I've sort of circled around to looking at the signals after studying binary decision making in some depth for a few months. The table shows that Zcon1 natural log YTD performance with xFC is poor over the 32 trade days. The high achieving m13m21 combination is showing… Continue reading 12/3/20 – Midday Signals
12/2/20 – Current Signals, Methodology Overview
The foxes sat out close to open (CO). Tactically, I sold near the open yesterday. For the last 30 years or so, money is made from close to open, with open to close (OC) more or less a crapshoot. Buying at the open and selling at the high, generally makes less money than shorting the… Continue reading 12/2/20 – Current Signals, Methodology Overview
Moving Average Transformation Calculations
I decided to change the moving average calculation to use natural logs instead of the formula: (Weighted Price - Moving Average) / Weighted Price * 100. The returns are identical but the numbers are easier to understand with natural logs. Once the given moving average is determined, the new formula is: WorksheetFunction.Ln(Arg1:=(WPrice) / Mx(xw) *… Continue reading Moving Average Transformation Calculations
9/18/20 – Probable x00, Possible x30
QQQ is getting close to it's 13 week simple moving average for the first time since the end of April. The last time it crossed from above was in late February, also after about 5 months above. The short term bull case that SPY is bottoming here remains rational but shaky. SMH and SOXL are… Continue reading 9/18/20 – Probable x00, Possible x30
9/15/20 – YTD and Previous 52 Days Numbers
This modest September weakness has been good for Specter/FF5. YTD numbers are trend following, trend following was never active for the July - September period. Note that FCC is negative for all six 3x Bulls on both long and short term, while LCC is positive on both views. TQQQ is the only ETF with a… Continue reading 9/15/20 – YTD and Previous 52 Days Numbers
8/31/20 29,000x
I've been working on presenting multiple strategy results to demonstrate that just about any reasonable combination of indicators in a finite state setup will produce impressive results. That results in a change to the naming convention, so 13em is now em13. The results of 3xWushu for about 10 years are below. 29000x for SOXL/SOXS is… Continue reading 8/31/20 29,000x
