All three major groups ended the previous 31 days up a median of .08, all doing better CO than OC. There is a general perception that the couch potatoes aren't worth the P/E premium. Tangibility is the new in thing. LABU has gone from almost 87 on 29-Apr to almost 57 today. I was bullish… Continue reading 5/10/21 Afternoon Signal xCF – Tangibility
Tag: SMH
5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
It was easy to laugh off the capital gain tax hike ERX and GUSH are added. The chart shows that picking winners was tough over the last 21 days. The 1x sector Etfs make more money with less risk. The SMH and XBI negative returns are annoying but not disastrous like LABU and SOXL. Not… Continue reading 5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
4/29/21 The Homestretch – SMH
The recent weekly view of SMH. The action of the last four weeks is quite similar to the weak Feb to early March period except there is no volatility. Note the large bottoming tails, and relatively short black bodies. This could be a double top forming, but the more likely interpretation is that this is… Continue reading 4/29/21 The Homestretch – SMH
4/13/21 Into the Homestretch
Turned out to be the right move to cut IWM loose when it started behaving badly Apr 5 and 6. SPY/QQQ/ and IWM were quite bullish in late March/early April. This formation shows some intermediate tops. This could tip over, in which 234 - 208 = 26, 226 - 26 = 200. That fate is… Continue reading 4/13/21 Into the Homestretch
4/13/21 Current Signal xCF
Probably have to get someone to look at my brain engrams to check how I thought xFC could resolve into xCC; not the first or last time I've done that. xCF OC has been a nice play to be long lately. It seems useful to split Semis into a group separate from Tech because the… Continue reading 4/13/21 Current Signal xCF
4/12/21 Current Signal xFC Top 10 Etfs
The overnight session didn't do a very good job of convincing anyone that there is downside uncertainty/risk in this market. Not a problem to guess the top winners out of 49 high volume ETFs. Not exactly a 1 in 5 chance to find something special. xFC is a mechanical sell, but I didn't think it… Continue reading 4/12/21 Current Signal xFC Top 10 Etfs
4/6/21 ETF Ranking
The table shows the 1x ETFs out of 40 with the best RR numbers over the past 21 days. The next table shows the poorest RR performers (which are not doing badly here). Yesterday's numbers (columns starting with "y") confirm the 21 day CC numbers to some extent. That is, green on the top and… Continue reading 4/6/21 ETF Ranking
2/1/21 Current Signals x03/x0
Index futures stabilized about half an hour after the open on Sunday night and that was pretty bullish. The easy read seems to be XLI: As long as the gap marked by the horizontal lines isn't filled things aren't going to be too bad and the action suggests that isn't happening today. It's still a… Continue reading 2/1/21 Current Signals x03/x0
1/26/21 Current Signals and Sectors
The last table shows results over the past 63 days if the next day CO (for SPY) is positive. x6 has a win rate of 70% for the two out of seven days that happened. That means that 70% of the 15 sector ETFs had positive returns OC, which is 21 positive out of 30… Continue reading 1/26/21 Current Signals and Sectors
1/21/21 Current Signals xFF/x7 and Sectors
The three unlikely post election sector heroes are KRE, XLE and XRT. KRE is doing about twice as well as XLF. Note that these strong sectors are going counter to the usual OC relative weakness. The big advantage of using natural log returns is that the three periods can be added to get total returns.… Continue reading 1/21/21 Current Signals xFF/x7 and Sectors