For the last several years, I've been developing the concept of finite state stock return analysis. There are a bunch of excellent ways to implement this type of methodology. I've been specifically looking at dividing the market day into two finite states.
The bottoming tails for the last three weekly SPY candles show decent support above 425, but the intermediate trend is gently down. Each of the last five weeks have all made lower highs and lows. QQQ is pretty much the same except the downtrend is slightly more pronounced. On general principles, some kind of bottom… Continue reading 10/8/21 The Homestretch
The long awaited post Labor Day market is here. If we are in a coal mine XLI might be a canary. It has moved down to challenge August lows without making a new high. All in all, just the same range bound action typical of the last 5 months.
After Friday's value drubbing, I was surprised to see an article pushing value stocks because they have doing so well. They are definitely more valuable this morning than Thursday for example. Personally, I'm a big value fan but sort of regard that as a weakness because growth consistently trounces value. About the best one can… Continue reading 6/21/21 Broad Based ETFs Growth vs Value
In all the excitement surrounding finishing my article on Monday, I forgot to include all the 3x Bulls in the one year summary. The technical problem of displaying this stuff cleanly is considerable. DS is CO -OC. A negative means that OC is higher than CO - man bites dog. If you are playing dog… Continue reading 6/2/21 Leveraged ETFs – LABU
It was easy to laugh off the capital gain tax hike ERX and GUSH are added. The chart shows that picking winners was tough over the last 21 days. The 1x sector Etfs make more money with less risk. The SMH and XBI negative returns are annoying but not disastrous like LABU and SOXL. Not… Continue reading 5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
The Feb/Mar 2020 fastest decline in history looks like nothing special on the monthly SPY chart. If we consider equal wave sizes: Low = 215Intermediate High = 355Intermediate Low = 320355 - 215 = 140Projected High = 320 + 140 = 460 When I did the calculation in Nov 2020 (I think) it didn't seem… Continue reading 4/27/21 The Homestretch
If a kidnapper of a close family member demands that you invest in either XLU, XLB, or XLV probably the choice is between XLB or XLV. They both look pretty good today, showing breakouts above congestion. Mining is the hot area today. Steel has not been strong lately but still the leading industry. The win… Continue reading 4/15/21 The Homestretch – Healthcare and Materials
Turned out to be the right move to cut IWM loose when it started behaving badly Apr 5 and 6. SPY/QQQ/ and IWM were quite bullish in late March/early April. This formation shows some intermediate tops. This could tip over, in which 234 - 208 = 26, 226 - 26 = 200. That fate is… Continue reading 4/13/21 Into the Homestretch
The dog of growth is is once again biting the man of value. SPLV, USMV have been about as bad as value funds get in a bull market over the last year, but their recent performance is approaching respectability. LABU/XBI/IBB look like they might keep it together OC for a change today. The USMV and… Continue reading 4/8/21 The Far Turn