There are probably about 30 people in the world who understand SPY dividends. Somehow they can keep SPY at more or less exactly 10% of the index. That means something weird goes on. Friday was definitely weird but I think these are correctly adjusted prices now. Note that the all time high I noted on… Continue reading 6/21/21 SPY Ex-Div
Category: Commentary
6/18/21 Probable xLH, XLF and XLI
XLI has been a critical component of market strength and this weakness is worth noting. XLF has been moving up with XLI and is also in a precarious situation. This week SPY fell from the Upper Cycle to the middle, and today probably to the lower. Specter/FF5s goes long mechanically if x00 appears Monday afternoon.… Continue reading 6/18/21 Probable xLH, XLF and XLI
6/18/21 Quadruple Witching and Ex-Div
I was so excited by the Fed meeting, I didn't realize today was quad witching and the Ex-div situation is murkier than usual. Spy is Ex 6/19 (tomorrow), otherwise 6/22 is popular, IWM happened already. Brokers don't do a good job of adjusting prices. IT guys don't like to do it because it is a… Continue reading 6/18/21 Quadruple Witching and Ex-Div
6/17/21 The Homestretch
QQQ is making a new high. The first dip to 297 in March started Feb 16. The center ellipse is an interesting double top/slightly rising wedge. That played out the way one might expect, a two wave decline, with the pretty tag of the 18 day SMA marking the beginning of the second down wave.… Continue reading 6/17/21 The Homestretch
6/17/21 Current Signal xLH
The action junkies probably were unsatisfied as the swings yesterday stopped a bit short of stomach churning. xLH has not been a great place for the last 3/7 of a year (108 days) but returns have been notably worse CO than OC. With ranges so tight, there is not a whole lot to do on… Continue reading 6/17/21 Current Signal xLH
6/16/21 The Homestretch
I've been following 120 minute charts lately. After the announcement, SPY goes down to where it triggers stops and that fills the Jun 3 - Jun 4 gap. A brief moment of very mild excitement. The pop lower wasn't unexpected, It was possible to make money on the move but that takes more video game… Continue reading 6/16/21 The Homestretch
6/15/21 Homogeneity
Looks like everyone who spent a lot of time on broad based ETF selection leading up to Apr 23 was wasting their time. Sometimes a chimpanzee and dartboard are all it takes. Very high winning percentages CO, but the gains are chimp change. The action consists of maneuvering with investors reluctant to increase or decrease… Continue reading 6/15/21 Homogeneity
6/14/21 The Homestretch
This week we learn if the Fed thinks there is an "I" in inflation. The check engine light is still flashing over the air support at 404. One scenario goes, after the meeting the market will move lower. That exact scenario is a bit obvious, but some kind of downward probe wouldn't be surprising. The… Continue reading 6/14/21 The Homestretch
6/7/21 IWM – Door Number 3
There was commentary today on SeekingAlpha about AMC being a small cap with a market value of $25 billion. That makes AMC the AAPL (or take your pick) of the small caps. That situation is also the case from GME which has a market cap of over $18 billion. That inspired me to check out… Continue reading 6/7/21 IWM – Door Number 3
6/7/21 $SPX or SPY
SPY set an all time high on Friday The two month timeframe gives a nice picture of action above the air support level of about 404. The check engine light is still flashing. SPY set an all time high on Friday which was certainly no surprise to the poor sap who sold at 416.28 on… Continue reading 6/7/21 $SPX or SPY
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