XLI reversed at the expected Fib level. Expecting the advance to halt below 76.
Author: Josef Friedman
E-Mini Equity Index Debacle
Further instability likely. ES 2650 area definitely in play. RTY close to 39 month moving average. Elevated fear in market.
39 Month Review
Current action is revolving around how much of the monthly February and January candles will be chewed up in this decline.
The Big Picture
Monthly $SPX suggests 2510 as the normal worst case scenario. A move down to mid 2700s more likely to happen before a serious attempt to make new highs.
Holding Unsteady
Prices are holding above last week's low and long term moving averages. The recent weakness isn't as serious as that of Spring and Fall of 2018.
Technical Issues
Markets appear to settling into a trading range. Further weakness is probable but not likely to be very alarming.
Stabilization
Monday loss was major buy opportunity. State change improved today. Linear regression slope strategy had buy signal today.
The Calm Waters of 2800
Increased volatility down here, 52 week moving average threatened. Into area of October through December 2018 tops.
Mission Accomplished – Finding a Reentry Point
The initial selling bout has almost run it's course, usually blue sequences don't last more than 8 consecutive candles. The last week and a half has given us a crash course on not buying dubious candles, and how good the market is putting lipstick on pigs . Days where closes are lower than the open are usually not good buy points.
XLI Typical Weekly Top
Worth noting when s stock makes a weekly triple top spread over 16 months, with similar structures.
