The usual recent story. Nervous nellies who sold on the itty bitty weakness missed the move. The witch (or whatever) of September is still two weeks away.
Author: Josef Friedman
8/19/21 A Little Volatility
I've been doing research on statistics. When statistics become interesting, we can infer that the market has been boring. However, it's rarely a bad guess to expect market weakness in the September/October period, and it is already late August. Some of the sharper tools in the shed, are tuning into that. The good and bad… Continue reading 8/19/21 A Little Volatility
7/29/21 IWM/TNA
This is typical IWM behavior. It got to about where it was going in February, and crashed into the 13 week SMA from the side. It could stay like this for a long time. Assuming it does, the idea is to buy when prices cut below the 13 week SMA and sell at some point… Continue reading 7/29/21 IWM/TNA
7/29/21 13% in 6 Months
xSig is Octal now. The hex number checked for profit over the entire lookback. That might be worth knowing, but for making decisions today, that seems to double complexity for no great analytical benefit. The median natural log return for the major players was 0.13. Median return was also 0.13 for the Sectors. Same story… Continue reading 7/29/21 13% in 6 Months
7/20/21 The Far Turn
Looks like yesterday was just some bozo selling. Prices came down to the 54 day SMA, which corresponds to the spot where the June breakout happened. Everyone smart enough to have a stop sell on this structure just got hosed, just like they probably deserved. That being said, the current action resembles the area in… Continue reading 7/20/21 The Far Turn
7/19/21 The Backstretch
430 and 427 proved to be nothing, one would expect there to be some support at one or both of those areas. I published this chart a while ago which has a line at 424 which was the base of the June-July breakout. If the breakout structure tips over the low will be 414 which… Continue reading 7/19/21 The Backstretch
7/16/21 The Homestretch
The recent action has seen a transition from OC excursions being acceptable to not so much. That can be gauged by looking at black candles. Volatility remains a joke. SPY is gently approaching the rising 18 day SMA. The 120 minute chart show the 54 period SMA is being tested. The new prevalence of black… Continue reading 7/16/21 The Homestretch
7/14/21 xSig Article
State Space-Time, The Finite Frontier was published on SeekingAlpha yesterday. It discusses the concept of a state space which is part of a rather obscure area of game theory, which seems related to my research. It introduces a state performance matrix derived from the structured lookback. The xFBD on the top line means is the… Continue reading 7/14/21 xSig Article
7/8/21 The Far Turn – More Mild Volatility
It sure would make analysis easier if a little volatility appeared and gradually went higher like we are seeing now. This looks like some big players are reducing positions by selling CO with lower prices attracting buyers OC. Going flat here isn't very astute, of course. The 54 day SMA at 420 is intermediate support.… Continue reading 7/8/21 The Far Turn – More Mild Volatility
7/7/21 Mild Volatility
Friday was sort of a double Summer Lipstick Day. Because it was a holiday weekend, the second string Friday players who botched the Fed announcement took the day off, leaving things to the third string who decided things looked pretty good. The gap was closed on Tuesday with a nice bounce off the 18 period… Continue reading 7/7/21 Mild Volatility
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