Commentary

9/22/21 The Far Turn

There really wasn’t any question about XLI eventually testing the 98 level, and this week that came to pass. The decline featured the semi-obligatory head fake as feeble holders saw their idiotically placed stops hit.. Deja vu all over again . As usual, the correct idea was to sell at the top which more or less coincided with the beginning of September because September is the weakest return month of the year.

The Evergrande story has gotten a lot of press. If an analyst somehow latched onto this early enough, the instant credibility can be milked. It’s just a fact of life; it is super cool to be in tune with the universe for a brief moment.

Last night the market decided it had heard enough. Even Citigroup wasn’t dumb enough to have exposure to those things.

In any case, the Fed meeting is at least a more important story than Evergrande at this particular point in time.

I’m sort of playing this for a second wave down with a recovery sometime in October. If that plan is good enough for Larry Williams, it’s probably better than what I would come up with on my own.

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