Commentary

8/19/21 A Little Volatility

I’ve been doing research on statistics. When statistics become interesting, we can infer that the market has been boring. However, it’s rarely a bad guess to expect market weakness in the September/October period, and it is already late August. Some of the sharper tools in the shed, are tuning into that.

The good and bad news is that there are no losses or gains. Standard deviation has been quite low. Based on natural log returns, 0.010 is pretty close to 1% and SPY is only about half that.

The sectors have been only a little more interesting. XLP and XLU are doing their usual exemplary job of mitigating trivial weakness.

The same downside projections as previously noted are in effect. A 10% decline puts SPY around 400 which is the major unfilled gap from late March. The 52 week SMA at 386 could come into play.

XLI behavior around 100 is probably worth keeping an eye on.

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