The recent action has seen a transition from OC excursions being acceptable to not so much. That can be gauged by looking at black candles.
Volatility remains a joke. SPY is gently approaching the rising 18 day SMA. The 120 minute chart show the 54 period SMA is being tested.
The new prevalence of black candles is more obvious on the 120 minute. 430 is sort of a neckline if this is a topping pattern. If it plays out as a top 430 – 7 = 423 is a downside target. 427 is a decent swing buy point. 427 itself could be a neckline. If that is the case, there is a downside possibility of 417.
The bull case is more likely.