Commentary

6/21/21 SPY Ex-Div

There are probably about 30 people in the world who understand SPY dividends. Somehow they can keep SPY at more or less exactly 10% of the index. That means something weird goes on. Friday was definitely weird but I think these are correctly adjusted prices now.

Note that the all time high I noted on 1-Jun is now less than the previous high of 421.44 after the ex-div. I never noticed that before.

Meanwhile what used to be 417 as the key level is now about 415. The air support number is now about 401. I’m wondering if prices never go back down there; if the gap will eventually close because of dividends. That is pretty cool, sort of like Hawking Radiation dissipating a black hole.

This kind of up/down routine can go on for some time. That implies buying down moves and selling up moves. 415 looks like the swing long number at the moment. Despite the Hawking Radiation effect, the current range is too narrow to have a lot of confidence in.

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