SPY almost tagged the 405 line which is the gateway to the rectangle. The top of the April Fool's Day pop out of congestion to 400 is the next target. However, the market has a good chance of stabilizing today with x00, which is the most reliable Specter/FF5s buy signal. QQQ is already back in… Continue reading 5/13/21 Stability At x00
Month: May 2021
5/12/21 The Homestretch
There is a possibility that this structure tips over at around 405, putting the prospective move to 405 - 20 = 385. That is around the late March low, that puts the target above 370 which is the early March low. The 52 week SMA is at 355. The support at 410 proved to be… Continue reading 5/12/21 The Homestretch
5/12/21 Current Signal xLH
Back to the Middle Cycle. Signals (like xLH) are sefirot, the plural of sefira, which means something like number in Hebrew. The Kabbalistic meaning of the terms are much more nuanced, but "number" is still a pretty good definition. The middle cycle sefirot xLH and xHL are composites made up of less usual signals. Last… Continue reading 5/12/21 Current Signal xLH
5/11/21 The Homestretch
Today looks like a 20 day low. The 417 level failed to hold, so now 410 is short term support. Looks tenuous. Friday gave a clue about near term direction. QQQ touched the 18 day SMA from below before pulling back. Today, it has crawled back up to the 54 day SMA, investors would like… Continue reading 5/11/21 The Homestretch
5/11/21 Descent to the Rectangle
SPY is about 412 now, getting close to taking out last week's low. That's about 10 away from the 13 week moving average and moving into the Jan-Mar rectangle. The 52 week SMA at 356 then becomes part of the conversation. The slope of the couch potato 13 week SMA is already negative. Taking out… Continue reading 5/11/21 Descent to the Rectangle
5/10/21 Afternoon Signal xCF – Tangibility
All three major groups ended the previous 31 days up a median of .08, all doing better CO than OC. There is a general perception that the couch potatoes aren't worth the P/E premium. Tangibility is the new in thing. LABU has gone from almost 87 on 29-Apr to almost 57 today. I was bullish… Continue reading 5/10/21 Afternoon Signal xCF – Tangibility
5/10/21 Natural Log Charts
I was working on Excel charts over the weekend. A year or so ago, I had some pivot charts with long and flat strategy return streams where Long + Flat = CC (Buy and Hold). The charts above are not pivot charts and CO + OC = CC. Important observations include: OC (gray line) outperforming… Continue reading 5/10/21 Natural Log Charts
5/7/21 Current Signal xHL
An unusual consecutive xHL signal. That happens when the first signal goes lower to middle cycle and the next one goes middle to upper. There is usually volatility with moves between cycles, but here we don't see any. SPY poking its nose back into the neutral zone yesterday makes the daily structure a little less… Continue reading 5/7/21 Current Signal xHL
5/6/21 Current Signal xHL
The market weakened into the close, but the signal stayed at xHL. The signals haven't been the primary focus of my work lately. The tables below shows Signal performance for the 74 Industrial Sector stocks I follow: There are three Cycles: Upper Cycle= signals xCC, xFC, xCF, and xFFMiddle Cycle= signals xLH, xHL, and xMMLower… Continue reading 5/6/21 Current Signal xHL
5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
It was easy to laugh off the capital gain tax hike ERX and GUSH are added. The chart shows that picking winners was tough over the last 21 days. The 1x sector Etfs make more money with less risk. The SMH and XBI negative returns are annoying but not disastrous like LABU and SOXL. Not… Continue reading 5/5/21 Afternoon Signal xHL
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