Commentary, Methodology

5/13/21 Cycle Analysis 3x Bulls

Today is the first day in the Lower cycle in at least the last 31 days. The single descent to the Middle cycle before yesterday was contained there. The two xHL days occurred consecutively last week, the second one being the first candle of the two day sucker rally into the weekend.

Ordinarily we would expect to see dip profits in the lower cycle but things have been so bullish we are seeing them with xH and xC. xF has been having negative reactions.

The Upper cycle is not easy to play because the sefirot aren’t as reliable. Mechanically, we can avoid xFC because that sefira is typically problematic. Of the other three, the odds are pretty good that at least one of them is also going to be crappy.

The Yrmolated periods show limited Lower cycle activity. When the market gets weak it can spend almost half the time in the lower cycle.

x30 is the weakest sefira. That probably happens if the market can stay positive today while staying below both averages. It is not always the kiss of death of course, but if you go long on x00 and win, it is quite questionable to let your bet ride.

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