Commentary

5/7/21 Current Signal xHL

An unusual consecutive xHL signal. That happens when the first signal goes lower to middle cycle and the next one goes middle to upper. There is usually volatility with moves between cycles, but here we don’t see any.

SPY poking its nose back into the neutral zone yesterday makes the daily structure a little less ugly. Whatever this pattern’s aesthetic issues, it doesn’t look like a top.

An investor in the Broad market Etfs on 25-Jun 2020 would have done OK. VTI is in the middle, .34 = a 41% return. It was hard to do much worse than that, even the couch potatoes made .30 = 36%.

The 31/62/124 day performance numbers go back to 25-Jun 2020. Note LABU had a negative result. However, if an investor bought at the close and sold at the open every day, a 394% profit could have been attained – plus or minus slippage of course. Holding only CO would have worked for all 11 of these guys except FAS and UDOW.

The CO edge is less pronounced on 1x Etfs but still obvious. Note that the median sector Etf doesn’t return a whole lot more than the broad market Etfs. It would have been tough to pick any of the top performing sectors last June.

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