The Feb/Mar 2020 fastest decline in history looks like nothing special on the monthly SPY chart. If we consider equal wave sizes:
- Low = 215
- Intermediate High = 355
- Intermediate Low = 320
- 355 – 215 = 140
- Projected High = 320 + 140 = 460
When I did the calculation in Nov 2020 (I think) it didn’t seem right to include the 215 low, so some number near the 13 month average in May 20 near 300 was used, the projected high then was 375.
460 seems like a decent guess. That’s about a 10% gain which is starting to look like chump change. Buying a retrace back to 355: the previous intermediate high, near the current 13 month SMA makes a 460 target look pretty good. 370 is a more likely entry point being closer to the current price.
At the same time things look quite bullish at the moment.