Commentary, Methodology

2/18/21 Signals xCC/y1>t1 – High Dimensionality

A 39 day lookback is used today, a month is generally 21 trade days. Note the ,07 median natural log return for the period. Win rates are quite good when they approach 60%. Note DIA wCC at 69%. IWM, IJH, and IJR are over 70% wCO.

I pulled my pending SA article, figuring I can write a better one after a few more days of obervation.

CC profits in the Upper Cycle are appearing in xCC and xFF. xFC and xCF are taking losses. Note the wCC win rates.

The double table above demonstrates high dimensionality. The table on top shows we can list the details for each equity when the single sefira xCC appears, but we can’t do a matrix of all sefirot for all equities. Instead an aggregated matrix of sefirot can be produced for all the equities as shown on the bottom. The data is in three dimensions and can’t be completely displayed on a two dimensional table. That is the reason why conclusions drawn from chart analysis (for example) should suck to one degree or another because they only show two dimensions.

I’ve noticed some people freak out about this, They go through a logical process that goes:

Assume charts suck. I use charts and think they are great. Therefore I think I’m being insulted.

Personally, I don’t think that way. It doesn’t seem productive and it is not the way such comments are meant to be taken.

The table above shows the yKwatz/tKwatz transition. The negative downside excursions during CO for y1 have tended to resolved to the upside OC for t1. If y1 had transitioned to t3, OC prospects would be negative. The 39 day Yrmolated periods prior to this have not been consistent with a strong OC. It will be interesting to see how this plays out with the weaker than usual CO period today.

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