Same signals as Friday, strong CO performance followed by consolidation OC.
We are starting to get about a year away from March Madness 2020. The current value of $1 invested buy and hold is shown along with the natural logs for EtfL (L = Leveraged) . LABU made $7,04 for every dollar invested on 3/31/20. .69 is doubling your money; if you double your money twice the natural log return will be .69 + .69 = 1.38. The median return of the seven bulls (and TQQQ) is 1.46. 1.46 is a little more than 1.38 and the cv$1 is 4.30.
Holding CO and going flat OC would have made more money.
An investor deciding to buy on 3/31/20 would have been ill advised to look at the previous 216 day period.
The 216 day timeframe is obviously too long to make trading decisions based on the numbers shown. Note how TQQQ and SOXL were the best performers in the earlier period but TNA and LABU are the best for the current one.
Anyway, decisions here are pretty easy, Stay long.
Hello, I haven’t followed your post for a while so my questions may sound silly to you: with all 4 signals at different time frames of 3/7/13/21, how do you use them to generate the final signal? Also, do you still use this signal (xFF …) with other trending signal anymore as combination? what does x2 stand for? Thanks! Jeff
Nice to hear from you, happy New Year,
Kzc13 is the default signal which is used in the tables showing the Specter/FF5 signals. There are now only 11 possible signals: x00 x03 x30 x33 xLH xHL xMM xCC xFC xFF and xCF. x0C and x0F now become combined into xLH for example. My latest article on SeekingAlpha describes this is in more detail. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397289-use-kabbalah-to-design-winning-strategies
Buy decisions can be made based on how the various signals are performing recently. In addition I have been doing some work on daily signals which look at CO and OC performance. This also includes win rate analysis..
Basically, we still go long on buy signals x00, x33, xMM xCC, xCF and xFF but we can also go long on other signals if they are playing OK.
The daily signals I call kwat for Quaternary – base 4. CO positive is worth 2. OC positive is worth 1. Each day has a daily signal ranging from 0 to 3 that are simple to derive. Today is x3 because both xCO and xOC were positive (for SPY).. I had been using Octal – base 8 for these signals until this weekend when I decided that base 4 seemed more promising.
At the same time portfolio analysis or at least the ability to analyze many equities at once has been improved and I’ve been playing with that.
This new direction is an improvement over the mechanical system I think. For example on Feb 1 and 2 the signals were x03 and x30 and the new structure was in favor of going long on both in addition to the xHL that happened on Feb 3.. In this case we were able to be long SPY from 375 to 390 to start the month.
Needless to say, still a work in progress though.
Happy new year to you! Wish you stay happy and healthy in 2021 and create more genuine ideas on FSM!
I have read your article on seekingalpha last night and it helps. the idea of grouping trades into three stages is brilliant!
I remember you mentioned a trade setup at 2pm in one of your posts. There is a published article on the same topics (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3760365) which supports your idea. Also, if you use schwab, you can play CO easily by using conditional order function. it’s fairly close to an automation. Let me know if you need help on it. Oh, JNUG has an interesting results in CO trade.
I greatly appreciate you for sharing those great ideas.
Jeff
Thanks for the complement and the article Jeff.
I think my research is, more or less. computational finance. The focus isn’t so much on personal profits, but rather on exploring and hopefully solving technical issues. My guess is that this has some value in high dimensional probability and clustering which might be post doctoral research from an academic point of view. The articles I’ve looked at on the subject, seem to be a combination of incomprehensible and incoherent.
I’m not sure where my work winds up on a scale of merit. Chess teaches a person not to let fear of being proved an idiot interfere with the analytical process. It would be piss me off if that happened but it’s not that big a deal. That gave me the courage to make my research public.