Commentary

2/3/21 Afternoon Signals xFF/x7 Higher Cycle Again

Looks like the twits will defeat the Ivy League MBAs in today’s battle, but not by enough to freak anybody out. XRT and SPY are both doing OK.

Notice that the Higher Cycle is making .34 CC (.11 -.08 + .39 – .06). I use natural logs because I got real good at adding and subtracting in primary school. That took 42 days (12 + 9 + 12 + 9) out of 63. The other 21 days had a profit of 1.79.

An investor wanted to increase his bets on descents to the middle and lower cycle during this period. That implies selling at some point during the upper cycle (otherwise he has to find money to buy). This doesn’t always work this way. Take the prior 63 day period for example:

There were 35 days in the upper cycle. EtfB (from this morning’s post) spent the extra 7 days in the Lower and Middle Cycles getting bitch slapped while it made good money in the Upper. Specter/FF5 does OK here because it mechanically buys x00, x33, and xMM so it dodged the x30/xLH drama.

The idea is to understand which way the wind is blowing.

The daily Octal signals are useful to use in conjunction with Specter/FF5. x7 was discussed this morning and it has happened 3 days in a row. Despite the weak xFF numbers, x7 recent performance makes holding CO better than OK, but I’m not sure I would increase positions.

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