Commentary

10/21/20 – Current Signals

The longer duration strategies (with 13 and 21) have been playing significantly better than shorter (with 3 and 7) for several years now. Longer times are long and shorter are flat here. The shorter are showing x30 which is dangerous and xCC for the longer is volatile but profitable.

The 341 neckline of SPY has been the major technical issue this week. It isn’t a real big deal if that holds exactly. 335 is an obvious downside target just below the 13 week SMA. The 320 September low doesn’t look convincing. The 52 week SMA at 310 should be strong enough to contain a decline if things go sideways from here. I expect the Sep 28 daily gap to close sooner or later and that number is 330.

Further weakness will start making the double top with the slightly deformed right shoulder more ominous. If it gets twice as bad as 357 – 320, SPY 280 could happen. That would be unpleasant for longs but not a horrible worst case scenario.

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