Commentary

9/17/20 – Probable em13 x03

9/17 shows the rectification of xEM signals. This reflects the recent failed breakout of the shorter term averages.

QQQ has already broken through the 54 day moving average, SPY is attempting to hold above there.

This could be a reasonable bottom formation. Otherwise, a break lower out of this congestion suggests an intermediate level decline. That can be estimated by High1 – Low1 = High2 – Low2. For SPY 358.75 – 331.00 = 27.75 343.06 – 27.75 = 315.31.

That move would land in between the 13 and 52 week moving averages. It is hard to imagine something like that or worse not happening before November.

2 thoughts on “9/17/20 – Probable em13 x03”

  1. Sorry, thought I answered this earlier…

    I get x1 for yesterday. x1 means the simple 13 day moving average ticked up. x1 gets transformed to x3. Let me know if you still disagree, and I’ll test it more thoroughly.

    FWIW, I was looking at using the natural log of the difference between the weighted price and moving average instead of the current measurement. It turns out returns are exactly the same over 9 years even with the slightly different numbers.

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