Commentary

9/4/20 Probable x0C

There is the technical issue of the broadening formation in the monthly charts. That describes major higher highs and lower lows. Obviously you can’t let that affect your trading/investing too much because then you would be flat from March through today.

This is similar to the daily chart in that price is extended high above the 13 month average. A move to the 13 month average at 310 is totally normal and wouldn’t really affect the long term bull prognosis. Even a move to the 39 month at 280 can easily happen. From a long term perspective, a move down to the 39 month and a recovery might be the happiest ending.

The multiple strategy table is pretty interesting.

The strategies are sorted by highest long return over the period. The returns only include the significant 6 instead of the usual crazy 8 for this time period.

Note that the default, em13, only ranks 6th in the strategy list. The strategies were divided on the question of whether yesterday was xFF. The signals are all about equally valid, the game is played by guessing which return stream is going to do best in the future. That is not easy to do but the differing results show that yesterday was more questionable than the em13 xFF signal would lead one to believe.

em13 was higher ranked before yesterday of course.

Those probabilities are difficult, even a guy with a PhD in statistics who majored in probability theory is not going to understand this real well unless he or she is really good, and I’m not sure such a being exists.

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