Commentary

8/28/20 Probable xCF

Showing E13 and M13, seems like a pretty strong close is needed for another xFF. Both are buy signals. This thing will eventually break down to an x0F or x0C at some point, so the current numbers are saying that if that happens soon it will be a greater than a 2% decline. No special reason that will be next week, but we are headed into a traditionally difficult month.

I sent an email to the editor begging for closure before the weekend, and my article was approved. We Skipped The 3x Fangdango.

I’m pretty sure about the finite state / consecutive time issue. That’s why xFF ConsecuSig3 turns out to be wrong, it’s not a true picture of probabilities because it is consecutive time. All stock market analysis is based on consecutive time. No question consecutive time has great importance in the structure of the universe, but finite states have to be part of the stock market conversation. Otherwise, why can’t consecutive time strategies produce similar results?

5 thoughts on “8/28/20 Probable xCF”

  1. Hi Joseph,
    I hope you are well.
    Well done. I read your articles and got interested. I just have a question, so if your signal is one of those: x00, x33, xMM, xCC, xCF, and xFF, we should buy or stay in. All other signal we should sell or stay out (we can buy inverse etfs during the sell or out period) at that time to enhance performance like you showed in your latest article? am I in the right direction?
    Can you please share with me all your signals since 1/1/2010? I would like to make some tests with them.

    Thank you
    Best regards
    Jafar

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  2. Hi Jafar, Your identification of the buy signals is correct. There is a semantic problem when you say ‘Should” buy. I share my research here and my primary interest is not making money, The numbers are certainly interesting and I’m quite certain they are mathematically correct.. I don’t want you to think that I am telling you to do anything. These instruments are risky.

    The 3x Bull strategy is a lot safer than adding the 3x Bears. I like the 3x Bears because I don’t think anyone else has a strategy that beats them by going long; that is the professional achievement that makes me happy, making a billion$ by actually doing it isn’t going to make me a whole lot happier. I doubt if anyone else has one for the bulls either but the bears are more of a challenge.

    Regarding the 10 years of signals. That may have some proprietary value for me so I’d rather not.

    If you want to do research into the system it would be greatly to your benefit to figure out how to create them yourself. You still have to solve retrieving historical prices in any case with or without the signals. I understand that increases your risk of perhaps wasting your time; that has happened to me a few times.

    I retrieve historical prices from Norgate and get current day prices via XLQ2 (Qmatix.com). XLQ2 can handle the whole build but then Excel can get COM errors which can get annoying. Norgate solves that problem. There are ways of getting historical data free mostly through Yahoo which gets more and more questionable through time.

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    1. Hi Joseph, Thank you for your reply.I actually do not understand anything about Finite state. I just know that you are using moving average to see periods where it is better to buy or sell based on historical data. I actually have access to historical data from yahoo. But I just wanted to do some backtests with your signals. For example, I would like to buy during the sell time etfs like TMF or UGL and see how it works.I understand that you do not want share your signals. But maybe you can share with me an excel sheet or csv file to show for each day since January 1st 2010 whether it is a (buy, in) and (sell, out).  Looking forward for your reply. Best regardsJafar

      Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

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      1. Funny you mention UGL. Before I got the 3x Bear idea I looked at UGL and was thinking to write an article the Good, Bad and UGL. Buying UGL during flat periods works real well since 2016 but lost just a little bit of money in 2011-2016. After the disappointing long term test, I started looking at the 3x Bears. They “work” all ten years… SOXL/SOXS makes 27000x the initial investment instead of 2500. My first article was about that but I liked the Fangdango title better.

        Let me think about the signal file overnight. I don’t have a problem giving you a fragment. I thought of looking at bonds but didn’t think it was worth it, maybe your judgment is better than mine.

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      2. Thank you for your quick reply. I am planning to invest small money following your signals. It would be great to do some backtests to see the best combination before doing that. (No need to show me which signal was in which day, just whether it is IN or OUT for each day starting from January 1st) Thank you  Best regardsJafar

        Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

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