Commentary, Methodology

7/21/20 Current xFC

Adjusting Strategies For Underlying Market Conditions was published yesterday morning.

The excessive close to open bias that was noted is getting a bit long in the tooth, but still ticking.

xFC has to resolve into xFF or xCF this afternoon, assuming something extraordinary doesn’t happen. The odds seem to favor xCF a bit. xCF has happened 16 times since the beginning of April while xFF has happened 10.

Note that xCF is significantly more volatile. Close to Open plays better on xCF. Needless to say both are pretty good.

The numbers in sdCC are good to know. That more or less shows the highest probable daily gain or loss as a percent. An xCF bet on SOXL at close can lead to a probable max gain or loss of about 8% while that number about 5% for xFF.

Counting x3 and x0

I didn’t get into this in my article because I don’t understand these yet, but CNeg counts negative FF5 signals (x3 and x0) in column xCP. That is not real suitable as a trend indicator like C50 because it is quite volatile. CNeg in conjunction with C50 is a promising line of research.

Note that the current trend following C50 is still bullish, but CNeg and C50 seem to be rising.

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