Commentary

7/6/20 1x and 3x Overview

Some enhancements were made to the analytical process that the reader should be aware of.

Analysis can be run on variable symbol lists, but lately 3x Bull ETFs have been specialized in.

Seven 3x ETFs are analyzed along with similar 1x ETFs. After some soul searching the list includes LABU and XBI. The application needs identical historical dates for all securities, so the inclusion of LABU limits the historical depth to about 4.5 years.

This was an exceptionally bullish quarter to say the least. Specter/FF5 will not outperform in markets that are strongly trending because the market will tend to stay at xC and xF and that causes xCF and xFC to have more positive returns.

Keep in mind that .69 for the natural log is doubling your money. 3 of the 7 3xs did that well (giving SOXL the benefit of the doubt) with buy and hold.

This is the aggregate matrix for 1x ETFs. The days column should be divided by 7 to get the number of days because there are 7 ETFs. Note how well close to open has been doing. An investor could have bought the close and sold the open every day for the 65 day period and done better than buy and hold. Also note that Close to High (CH) is significantly wider than Close to Low (CL).

SPY has broken above the 3 week rectangle today. Seems like a lucky guess to have been long over the weekend as xFF Close to Open has not been that good. That kind of stuff is less important than the strength of last week’s move

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