Commentary

Signal Will Not Be Published Today 6/11/20 Before Close

I’ll be away later today.

The market did retreat toward the close yesterday but only begrudgingly to the low of the day. I wasn’t that keen on buying in any case, so I stayed flat.

SPY is a little below the 13 day moving averages as I write this. If it stays below the signal will change to x0C. That has been doing OK for the last 4.5 years but is slightly negative in 2020. I’m thinking that Neo-Classical Specter/FF5 is not correct and that Classical is the better analytical framework.

The recent action has been useful in getting a better understanding of the strategies. Mostly I’m just watching before deciding what to look at in depth.

The move down sort of fills a gap created by early action last Friday. There was never any real doubt that that gap was going to be filled. That’s just general principles. There is a likelihood of a bounce if the decline can be contained but that kind of thinking wasn’t rewarded in late February/ early March this year.

I’m not really expecting another zombie apocalypse movie here but there are issues.

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