Commentary

Holding Unsteady

SPY Weekly

The area between the 13 and 52 week moving averages is one of increased volatility compared to the more usual price situation above those levels.

At this point, the action is encouraging as a higher low appears to have been made this week. The weekly candle could easily finish yellow – unchanged from last week – if the action remains positive today. In any case, there doesn’t seem to be any immediate danger of probing the 52 week average.

The “normal” coloring of the rate of change (probably any momentum cycle) is green, yellow, blue, white. There is an upward bias of course, so Yellow and white will most often transition to green. Note how trivial the current weakness looks (last 3 candles) compared to Spring and Fall 2018.

SPY Daily

Prices remain above the flat 200 day moving average. There is support of intermediate strength here which I wouldn’t bet will hold. The 200 day isn’t safe either, but both are about equally unimportant, as a short trip below will mean nothing.

There is a possibility of a further decline to the 27x area. 295 (swing high) – 280 (swing low) = 15. 290 (rounded high on May 16) – 15 = 275. The more significant longer term question is whether we will see action below 270 sometime this year – that seems relatively likely to me, but the more immediate issue is where the trading range will be.

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