Commentary

XLI Typical Weekly Top

XLI Week

The chart shows three major tops, early 2018, September 2018, and late April 2019 (if we boldly assume that the April 2019 action indeed defines a top). Note the similar consolidation patterns at each of the tops – 3 indecisive green bars – with the sharp momentum breaks afterwards.

Tradestation doesn’t adjust prices for dividends and claims that different market participants have different preferences; personally I think it is mostly because the developers don’t like the added complexity. Anyway the 3 dividend adjusted tops are within a dime of each other.

One might think that the 52 week moving average at 73.72 is going to be a topic of discussion this summer. Prior to the relatively frequent contact with the 52 week on the chart, the last contact with the 52 week average was in July 2016. Note how the price is now in the range of a major consolidation pattern going back to December 2017.

Notice that the last appearance of a white candle (keep in mind that this week isn’t over yet), was the three candle sequence at the 52 week moving average in March, with the bottoming action in conjunction with the strong final white candle move to the top of the 3 week range gave alert weekly (if that’s not an oxymoron) investors a nice buying opportunity. Of course they could have made more money and saved some nervous energy by holding through the minor turbulence.

Daily

The support at the 54 day moving average lasted for a few days, the late action yesterday was quite disappointing.

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