Commentary

More Weakness

VTI Daily

The blue line looks like a medium term trend line that will likely be the near term focus of discussion. I mentioned the March 21 top of 146.84 as a likely target last week.

The cyan line is the average of the 7, 13, and 21 day hull moving averages. The white line is the same calculation for linear regression curves. They can be used to create a killer e-mini equity strategy. Note that both lines overshoot the current consolidation pattern. I’m not sure if that’s a sell signal or just a statistical thing. The fact that both lines are now pointing down is not positive.

VTI Daily – JMA

The 3 lines are 7, 13, and 21 period Jurik moving averages. Jurik has some important theoretical discussions on his web site, especially on the topic of overshoot. Smoothness and sensitivity are vital technical concepts.

The 7 period average has crossed below the 13 and 21 as happened at the two most recent blue bar declines in March. This decline probably will be somewhat more serious as it will probably take out the micro pull back low of 147.51 from April 18.

VTI Daily – Normal

This is my normal view with the 18 and 54 period moving averages. The 18 day average is no longer providing a good current trend line, that role has been taken over by the 36 day, but there is little question that the more serious discussions will be about the sanctity of the 54 day.

This area strikes me as the most important topping formation of 2019.

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