Commentary

Market Summary, April 15

ETF Summary

The last two columns show the readings of the 3 day rate of change and the composite rate of change. If both numbers are green (positive) the rate of change algorithm is either currently long or buying at the close. The algorithm will go flat at the close if either column has a negative number.

The algorithm is flat XBI, XLE,. XLV, and XRT.

XBI

I thought this thing was vulnerable to support at 87 to 88. Nice to be in agreement with the market, whether there is a cause and effect relationship is debatable though. My guess is that the 54 day moving average will continue to be part of the conversation for the near term, however it did make a nice move off of it.

XLV

Based on rate of change levels XLV should have moved up to second worst ETF today, however XLV has cut below both the 18 and 54 day moving averages over the last few days. I think XLV has more work to do with it’s rising 52 week moving average, currently at about 89.

IWM

I was long IWM from April 11, and sold about 15 minutes into the daily session. The buy signal was weak on April 11 as the close was lower than the open and even lower than the previous day’s high. Now 3 daily candles in a row have formed with lower closes than opens. That, being said this structure is far from negative as it has consolidated at the breakout area.

VTI

VTI and SPY pretty much look the same. The structure is still bullish of course, but the action is quite choppy. The market was stronger at the close. Generally speaking, things still look quite positive other than the disquieting relative weakness of XBI and XLV.

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